Magic: The Gathering (MTG) is a collectible card game published by Wizards of the Coast since 1993, with hundreds of sets and thousands of cards released. These cards are not only fun and collectible, but also some of them are very rare, powerful, or historical, making them highly sought-after in the market, with prices ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of dollars.

So why don’t counterfeiters try to make fake MTG cards instead of fake US dollars? This question seems simple, but actually involves many factors, such as market demand, risk-reward ratio, technical difficulty, and legal sanctions. Let’s analyze these factors one by one.

Market demand

The goal of counterfeiters is to make money, so they will choose targets that have high market demand and liquidity. The US dollar is one of the most widely used currencies in the world, not only in the US, but also in many countries and regions as legal tender or reserve currency. It is estimated that there are more than 1.4 trillion dollars in cash circulation worldwide, of which about 60% are outside the US. This means that the US dollar has high market demand and liquidity, and counterfeiters can easily exchange fake bills for real ones or other goods.

In contrast, MTG cards have low market demand and liquidity. First, this is a game for a specific group of people, only players or collectors will be interested in cards. Second, this is a game that requires professional knowledge and rules, only those who are familiar with the game mechanics and card attributes can distinguish between real and fake cards. Third, this is a game that is protected by copyright, only official authorized channels can legally sell cards. Therefore, MTG cards have low market demand and liquidity, and counterfeiters will have a hard time finding suitable buyers or sales channels.

Risk-reward ratio

Counterfeiters will also consider the risk-reward ratio when choosing targets. Risk includes being discovered, arrested, punished, or other situations that may cause loss or harm. Reward includes the profit or other benefits obtained by counterfeiting. Generally speaking, counterfeiters will prefer targets that have low risk and high reward.

The US dollar has high market demand and liquidity, but also high risk. The US government takes counterfeiting very seriously, not only using various anti-counterfeiting technologies, but also setting up a special agency - the United States Secret Service - to investigate and prosecute counterfeiting cases. According to US law, counterfeiting or using fake bills is a felony, punishable by up to 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $250,000. Therefore, counterfeiters who choose to make fake US dollars will face high risk of being discovered and punished.

MTG cards have low market demand and liquidity, but also low risk. MTG cards have weak anti-counterfeiting technologies, mainly relying on card quality, printing, color, glossiness, etc. to identify. These features can be imitated or faked by using common equipment and materials, without too much skill or time. It is reported that there is a kind of imitation card called “proxy card”, which has very close quality to real cards, and can even be used in some occasions. But this kind of proxy card has very low production cost, only about $0.1 to $0.5 per card. Therefore, counterfeiters who choose to make fake MTG cards will face low risk of being discovered and punished.

Technical difficulty

The US dollar has high technical difficulty, because it uses various anti-counterfeiting technologies, such as watermark, security thread, colorful fibers, microprinting, color-shifting ink, 3D security ribbon, etc… These anti-counterfeiting technologies require professional equipment and materials to produce, and are hard to replicate perfectly. It is reported that there is a kind of high-quality fake bill called “super dollar”, which is very close to real bills, and can even pass some detection devices. But this kind of super dollar has very high production cost, about $20 to $50 per bill. Therefore, counterfeiters who choose to make fake US dollars will face high technical difficulty and cost.

MTG cards have low technical difficulty, because they use weak anti-counterfeiting technologies, such as card quality, printing, color, glossiness, etc… These anti-counterfeiting technologies can be imitated or faked by using ordinary equipment and materials, without too much skill or time. It is reported that there is a kind of imitation card called “proxy card”, which has very close quality to real cards, and can even be used in some occasions. But this kind of proxy card has very low production cost, only about $0.1 to $0.5 per card. Therefore, counterfeiters who choose to make fake MTG cards will face low technical difficulty and cost.

On one hand, there is high risk and high reward, while on the other hand, there is low risk and low reward. How should one choose? Generally speaking, criminals tend to be daring individuals who disregard the law. Therefore, they are usually more inclined to take risks for the sake of higher returns, even if they face more severe legal consequences. For instance, they might choose to produce counterfeit US dollars.

Legal sanctions

The US dollar has severe legal sanctions, because it is the official currency of the US and many other countries and regions. As mentioned earlier, counterfeiting or using fake bills is a felony, punishable by up to 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $250,000. Therefore, counterfeiters who choose to make fake US dollars will face severe legal sanctions.

MTG cards have mild legal sanctions, because they are intellectual property of Wizards of the Coast. As mentioned earlier, counterfeiting or using fake cards is an infringement of copyright, punishable by up to 5 years in prison and a fine of up to $150,000. Therefore, counterfeiters who choose to make fake MTG cards will face mild legal sanctions.

Clearly, the technical difficulty of producing the latter is lower. However, when considering various factors, how would those counterfeiters choose?

Conclusion

From the above analysis, we can see that counterfeiters have different considerations when choosing targets. Although MTG cards have low risk, low technical difficulty, low cost, and mild legal sanctions, they also have low market demand, low liquidity, and low profit. On the other hand, although US dollars have high risk, high technical difficulty, high cost, and severe legal sanctions, they also have high market demand, high liquidity, and high profit. Counterfeiters are criminals who disregard the law and pursue profit as their first goal. Therefore, they are more willing to take high-risk and high-reward illegal activities: making fake US dollars.

In a world where counterfeit bills are rampant, having a professional money counter can not only save you a lot of time, but also avoid many potential risks. A money counter can help you detect fake bills quickly and accurately, and protect your business from losses.